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New AI tool can predict pancreatic cancer three years in advance
A new artificial intelligence tool may be able to successfully identify people at risk of pancreatic cancer up to three years in advance.
The breakthrough AI model used patients’ medical records and information from previous scans to detect those at risk of the deadly disease, which can be hard to catch early, difficult to treat, and kills more than half of sufferers within five years of diagnosis.
Research led by investigators at Harvard Medical School and the University of Copenhagen in collaboration with VA Boston Healthcare System, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, and the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, suggests AI was able to determine a person’s risk of developing pancreatic cancer with astounding accuracy.
The findings published in Nature Medicine implies AI-based population screening could be valuable in finding those at elevated risk of developing the disease, which has an average age of diagnosis of 72 and affects both men and women.
Currently, there are no population-based tools to screen broadly for pancreatic cancer, which in its early stages can have no specific symptoms.
Those with a family history and certain genetic mutations that predispose them to the disease are screened in a targeted fashion. But such focused screenings can miss other cases that fall outside of those categories, the researchers said.
Study co-senior investigator Chris Sander, faculty member in the Department of Systems Biology in the Blavatnik Institute at Harvard Medical School, said: ” One of the most important decisions clinicians face day to day is who is at high risk for a disease, and who would benefit from further testing, which can also mean more invasive and more expensive procedures that carry their own risks.
“An AI tool that can zero in on those at highest risk for pancreatic cancer who stand to benefit most from further tests could go a long way toward improving clinical decision-making.”
Applied at scale, such an approach could expedite detection of pancreatic cancer, lead to earlier treatment, and improve outcomes and prolong patients’ life spans, Dr Sander added.
According to World Cancer Research, pancreatic cancer is the 12th most common in the world with nearly 500,000 new cases in 2020. Globally, the incidence of the disease is projected to increase to 18.6% per 100,000 by 2050, meaning it will pose a significant public health burden.
Søren Brunak, professor of disease systems biology and director of research at the Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research at the University of Copenhagen, said: “Many types of cancer, especially those hard to identify and treat early, exert a disproportionate toll on patients, families and the healthcare system as a whole.
“AI-based screening is an opportunity to alter the trajectory of pancreatic cancer, an aggressive disease that is notoriously hard to diagnose early and treat promptly when the chances for success are highest.”
In the study the researchers applied an AI algorithm to clinical date from nine million patient records from the US and Denmark. They asked the AI model to look for tell tale signs based on the data contained in the records.
Based on combinations of disease codes and the timing of their occurrence, the model was able to predict which patients are likely to develop pancreatic cancer in the future. Notably, many of the symptoms and disease codes were not directly related to or stemming from the pancreas.
The researchers tested different versions of the AI models for their ability to detect people at elevated risk for disease development within different time scales — six months, one year, two years, and three years – and found their methods were “substantially more accurate at predicting who would develop pancreatic cancer than current population-wide estimates of disease incidence.”
Among 22 people with lung nodules that eventually were diagnosed with the cancer, the AI flagged 18 as having a high risk of developing the disease.
The researchers said they believe the model is at least as accurate in predicting disease occurrence as are current genetic sequencing tests that are usually available only for a small subset of patients in data sets.
Relatively simple screening tests have become common for many other cancers like breast, cervix, and prostate. By picking up signs of disease early, they have transformed the outcome for patients.
But pancreatic cancer is harder and more expensive to screen and test for.
Medics look mainly at family history and the presence of genetic mutations, which, while important indicators of future risk, often miss many patients.
The researchers say one particular advantage of the AI tool is that it could be used on any and all patients for whom health records and medical history are available – not just in those with a known family history or genetic predisposition for the disease.
This is especially important, the researchers add, because many patients at high risk may not even be aware of their genetic predisposition or family history.
In the absence of symptoms and without a clear indication that someone is at high risk for pancreatic cancer, clinicians may be cautious to recommend more sophisticated and expensive testing, such as CT scans, MRI or endoscopic ultrasound.
When these tests are used and suspicious lesions discovered, the patient must undergo a procedure to obtain a biopsy. Positioned deep inside the abdomen, the organ is hard to access and easy to provoke and inflame. Its irritability has earned it the nickname ‘the angry organ.’
An AI tool that identifies those at the highest risk for pancreatic cancer would ensure that clinicians test the right population, while sparing others unnecessary testing and additional procedures, the researchers said.
About 44% of people diagnosed in the early stages of pancreatic cancer survive five years after diagnosis, but only 12% of cases are diagnosed that early. Researchers estimate the survival rate drops to between 2-9% in those whose tumours have grown beyond their site of origin.
Dr Sander said: “That low survival rate is despite marked advances in surgical techniques, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy. So, in addition to sophisticated treatments, there is a clear need for better screening, more targeted testing, and earlier diagnosis, and this is where the AI-based approach comes in as the first critical step in this continuum.”
AI has come in for criticism recently due to fears about privacy, intellectual property rights, bias and ethics.
Many scientists are also worried that the technology could soon outperform humans.
But it is being embraced in medicine where it is already being used to help develop new drugs, in surgery and for personalising treatment.
In March this year researchers in Canada announced that artificial intelligence had developed a treatment for the most common type of liver cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, in just 30 days and could predict a patient’s survival rate.
Shingles vaccination may slow biological ageing in older adults, research suggests.
The study examined more than 3,800 people aged 70 and older and found that those who received the vaccine showed slower biological ageing on average than unvaccinated individuals.
The study used data from a nationally representative US survey to assess how shingles vaccination related to several measures of biological ageing.
Even when controlling for other sociodemographic and health variables, vaccinated individuals had lower inflammation measurements, slower epigenetic ageing (changes in how genes are switched on or off) and slower transcriptomic ageing (changes in how genes are transcribed into RNA used to create proteins).
The research was carried out at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, using data from the US Health and Retirement Study.
Shingles, also called herpes zoster, is a painful, blistering skin rash caused by reactivation of the chickenpox virus. Anyone who has had chickenpox is at risk of shingles. While shingles can occur at younger ages, risk is higher for those 50 and older and for immunocompromised people. Vaccination offers protection from shingles and lowers the chance of postherpetic neuralgia, or long-term pain after infection.
While vaccines are designed to protect against acute infection, recent research has highlighted a possible link between adult vaccines, including those for shingles and influenza, and lower risks of dementia and other neurodegenerative disorders, said research associate professor of gerontology Jung Ki Kim, the study’s first author.
“This study adds to emerging evidence that vaccines could play a role in promoting healthy ageing by modulating biological systems beyond infection prevention.”
Biological ageing refers to how the body changes over time, including how well organs and systems are working, unlike chronological ageing, which is simply time passing. Two people who are both 65 years old may look very different inside: one may have the biological profile of someone younger, while another may show signs of ageing earlier.
Kim and coauthor Eileen Crimmins, USC university professor and AARP professor of gerontology, measured seven aspects of biological ageing: inflammation, innate immunity (the body’s general defences against infection), adaptive immunity (responses to specific pathogens after exposure or vaccination), cardiovascular haemodynamics (blood flow), neurodegeneration, epigenetic ageing and transcriptomic ageing. The team also used the measures collectively to record a composite biological ageing score.
Chronic, low-level inflammation is a contributor to many age-related conditions, including heart disease, frailty and cognitive decline. This phenomenon is known as inflammaging, Kim said.
“By helping to reduce this background inflammation, possibly by preventing reactivation of the virus that causes shingles, the vaccine may play a role in supporting healthier ageing. While the exact biological mechanisms remain to be understood, the potential for vaccination to reduce inflammation makes it a promising addition to broader strategies aimed at promoting resilience and slowing age-related decline.”
The effect may persist. When analysing how time since vaccination related to results, Kim and Crimmins found that participants who received their vaccine four or more years before providing their blood sample still showed slower epigenetic, transcriptomic and overall biological ageing on average than unvaccinated participants.
“These findings indicate that shingles vaccination influences key domains linked to the ageing process. While further research is needed to replicate and extend these findings, especially using longitudinal and experimental designs, our study adds to a growing body of work suggesting that vaccines may play a role in healthy ageing strategies beyond solely preventing acute illness.
The work was supported by the National Institute on Aging at the National Institutes of Health. The Health and Retirement Study is supported by the National Institute on Aging.
Thousands of men in England will get the prostate cancer drug abiraterone on the NHS within weeks.
For the first time, patients in England whose cancer has not spread will be able to receive abiraterone as the health service widens access to the treatment.
Around 2,000 men diagnosed in the last three months whose cancer has not spread will get access to the treatment if it is of clinical benefit.
An additional 7,000 men are expected to be diagnosed each year and will be eligible for the drug.
The national clinical director for cancer at NHS England, professor Peter Johnson, said: “For thousands of men with prostate cancer, this treatment option could be life-changing by helping keep their cancer at bay for several years.
“The life-extending treatment available on the NHS within weeks will mean thousands of men can kick-start their year with the news that they will have a better chance of living longer and healthier lives.
“The NHS will continue to work hard to offer people the most effective and evidence-based treatments, with several new prostate cancer drugs rolled over the last five years.”
Abiraterone is a hormone-blocking tablet that helps stop prostate cancer spreading by cutting off the testosterone it needs to grow.
Research has shown that for these earlier-stage patients, survival after six years is improved, with trials showing 86 per cent of men alive after six years on abiraterone compared with 77 per cent on standard treatment (hormone therapy with or without radiotherapy).
NHS England has been able to expand access to the drug for thousands more eligible patients by securing better-value supply, following clinical advice to roll this out last year.
The NHS has set a target to save over £1bn on clinically effective biosimilar drugs during this parliament. Biosimilars are approved, lower-cost versions of biological medicines.
More than eight in 10 drugs the NHS now prescribes are lower-cost biosimilar or generic medicines, creating funding for other treatments.
The NHS in England already commissions abiraterone, now available as a lower-cost generic medicine, for advanced prostate cancer, having introduced a policy to commission the treatment in December 2024, nearly one year ahead of positive NICE guidance recommending it in November 2025.
NHS England has worked with campaigners including Prostate Cancer UK to secure this rollout.
In the past five years alone, the NHS in England has also commissioned targeted prostate cancer therapies, including the branded drugs enzalutamide, darolutamide, relugolix and apalutamide.
The health and social care secretary, Wes Streeting, said: “When you’re living with prostate cancer, every day with your loved ones matters.
“I’m delighted the NHS have taken the steps needed to make the drug available, giving thousands of men access to abiraterone, a treatment that significantly improves survival rates and can give patients precious extra years of life.
“We’re backing the best clinical evidence, making smart funding decisions, and ensuring patients get the care they need when they need it most.
“We’re serious about improving prostate cancer outcomes, treating it faster and giving loved ones more time together.”
In parallel with confirming abiraterone’s commissioning, NHS England will also offer blood plasma treatment for people with the rare condition Clarkson’s Syndrome, and genetic testing for parents with pre-existing conditions going through IVF, following clinical advice and enabled by long-term funding.
Sharp rises in blood sugar after meals may raise Alzheimer’s risk, according to genetic analysis of more than 350,000 adults.
The findings point to after-meal glucose, rather than overall blood sugar, as a possible factor in long-term brain health.
Researchers examined genetic and health data from over 350,000 UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69, focusing on fasting glucose, insulin, and blood sugar measured two hours after eating.
The team used Mendelian randomisation, a genetic method that helps test whether biological traits may play a direct role in disease risk.
People with higher after-meal glucose had a 69 per cent higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease.
This pattern, known as postprandial hyperglycaemia (elevated blood sugar after eating), stood out as a key factor.
The increased risk was not explained by overall brain shrinkage (atrophy) or white matter damage, suggesting after-meal glucose may affect the brain through other pathways not yet fully understood.
Dr Andrew Mason, lead author, said: “This finding could help shape future prevention strategies, highlighting the importance of managing blood sugar not just overall, but specifically after meals.”
Dr Vicky Garfield, senior author, added: “We first need to replicate these results in other populations and ancestries to confirm the link and better understand the underlying biology.
“If validated, the study could pave the way for new approaches to reduce dementia risk in people with diabetes.”
Shingles vaccine may slow biological ageing in older adults
Thousands of men in England to be offered life-extending prostate cancer drug
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